During the offseason last year, things got a little crazy with the low count stuff. With Supreme, Museum and Fire churning out gold in huge numbers, the way the community valued the cards was already interesting to begin with. Now that the season has changed over, the same people that were unsure of how to treat the situation last year, seem to be carrying that over into the new build. Im actually kind of surprised, and wanted to put down a few thoughts as we get going into the main marathons for the 2016 season.
First, its worth discussing a bit about what happened, as it was clear that a LOT of people bought the cards, but few people really saw the true impact it had. When the 2015 season was still in progress, anything 15 was basically untouchable. Legends, Limited variants, Rain, and especially 1/1s all had so much value in trade that 99% of the user base had literally no access. When the playoffs hit, a lot of the count based value was skewed by some really crazy awesome releases, even more so by the Super Bowl.
When Fire dropped during the offseason, all bets were off. Hundreds of 10 count and 50 count cards were released almost weekly, and it really messed with everything. People no longer valued anything that wasnt below 10 in count, and even then it was spotty. Up until the offseason sets, it was rare to see a sub 25 count card of someone that wasnt a star. Now, players like Sean Mannion and Clive Wolford were getting into the game, and people didnt really see the value like they once did.
When the new app build launched and people started getting into the game with Triple Threads, I saw impact like I hadnt seen in previous years. This new set was obviously based on the 2015 Topps Physical set, but was being branded as 2016 playable cards. I think that making them score for the new year was the right call, but it blurred the cutoff line that usually happens with each new season. It told the community that count issues created by the physical offseason sets may continue into 2016, and that doesnt seem to have had a good effect.
As with any 2015 card, it wont be the same value as a low count 2016 card. You cant just trade count for count in the game, and people really need to get used to that. As we have seen with Bunt, box purchased cards are not usually valued as high as pack pulled cards, either. These types of releases are so populous, that the “type” of card isnt rare like a marathon variant being rare. It boils down to a card about three to five times the count, minimum. So, if you have a 10 count card, it might be treated like a 50 count card if you are lucky and its a good player.
Rookie premiere stuff was a month worth of releases with INSANELY low counts because cost on the bundles to buy them was out of whack. These cards also have lower value, unless its the live sigs and minicamp cards for rookies that have no other scoring examples. Dak Prescott’s live sigs should be quite the hot ticket when the season starts.
Just be prepared to be laughed out of the building if you offer a 10 count gold for the Gurley limited at 30. Its just not the way Huddle works. Now, dont go throwing your 10 count gold cards away either, as there will be inserts that will be coming where they will come in very handy.
The app’s size shrinks during the offseason, and all those people who missed the fun – and there was a lot of it – will want to catch up on their team and player collections. When they pull some of the inserts coming, they will maybe take a second look if you have some nice offseason physical cards to offer.
Trading For 2016 Cards
As mentioned above, because there were so many low count examples that flooded the market, you cant do a count for count swap with 2016 stuff. Top players like Newton and Brady will definitely carry bigger sticks in the trade economy, but dont think that someone is just going to hit accept because you throw a gold their way. There will be a lot of reasons why its almost better to hang onto your best cards than it would be to dump them now, and that’s just the way it is.
As we saw last year, there was a large market that developed for previous year’s low count inserts. Even though there were fewer of them, people still saw them as cards worth acquiring. It might not happen right away, but if you have some of the more premium physical or low count inserts from last year, they wont be worthless.
The most important thing about all of this is recognizing what you gave up to get the cards in your collection, money or trades, before dumping them for pennies on the dollar. Just because 2015 is done and the cards dont score, is a license to cut bait unless you want to.
Huddle made its bed with the physical sets, and now needs to sleep in it, but that isnt the end of the cards in our collections. A low count card from last year is still going to be something worth having on lock, and dont feed into people who tell you otherwise. If you like it, dont let others influence you to devalue the cards. I had someone yesterday say their offer of 9 golds for one of my Supreme signatures was worth my time. I laughed. Early year hype for gold cards will be fleeting as always – especially once boosts hit. I dont believe that things have sunk that low, and I am not going to dump my cards unless someone has something I actually want more.
At the same time, dont be surprised if someone doesnt share that viewpoint – and that’s okay. Its one person of thousands. Things have a way of coming around. Trust me.