Digital Card Central

With certain releases in the game, the value can be high because of the cool factor, the player or even the rarity of the card. Sometimes one of the categories can overpower low performances in the other categories, like a 1000 count sig being more valuable than a 1000 count 60th anniversary weekly chase card. It can work both ways too, as we are seeing with the first batch of International Series inserts released a few weeks ago.

First, its worth mentioning that the circumstances of these inserts contributed more to the disaster of their release than anything. Basically, “production delays” prevented the cards from being released on time with the game. By the time the cards hit the sheet, we were already well over the novelty of the matchup overseas.

Secondly, the packout format was ill conceived, as the price of the pack was so cost prohibitive that no one bought it, save a few high rollers with nothing better to spend their coins on. Obviously, these were NOT meant to be chase inserts in that fashion, and you can tell by the extension of the pack expiration, and the inclusion in the 1/1 Gold Super packs. Huddle wanted the card counts increased, as it was obvious something didnt work out right.

When the second batch of international cards hit yesterday, the counts soared, mostly because the packs were A) cheaper B) more available and C) timely with the game being played. Im sure there were a mix of people who wanted to get in, just in case they ended up being as rare as the first batch.

If the design of the cards is also considered in the lack of popularity during the first batch, there is a recipe here that will hopefully never be repeated. Although I didnt think the design was horrible, it was definitely more abstract than many people were used to. Huddle is pretty conservative in their tastes sometimes, and it showed with these cards.

As for the value of the cards, its tenuous at best. Some users were duped into the card count value area discussed above, and gave up way too much to secure them. This has led to high asking prices with not many bites from anyone looking to trade. Every so often, you will find a fan of the teams who played, and they will pay through the nose to get those rare copies, but they are few and far between. Many of the Dolpins/Jets fans who could afford it bought the packs anyways, and dont need many more for their sets.

Is it worth it to take on these cards, knowing that there is a very specific market that wants them? If you can get them cheap enough, there is a good deal out there for every card. DO NOT give up rare or valuable cards for them, regardless of how low the counts are. You will come to find out how difficult they are to move.

We can all hope something like this does not happen again, at least by accident.

If you havent been following along over the last year, things are going to be changing in physical football cards. Panini America, a competitor of Topps, has signed an NFL and NFLPA exclusive deal for the rights to produce physical football cards. You might be wondering how this could impact Topps and Huddle, so Im going to do my best to quell any unrest.

Quick Hits

From every indication we have received from the Topps Digital team , they have said that Topps Digital is NOT impacted by the NFL exclusive granted in physical cards. In the opening Q&A for the year, they addressed this question.  I would guess that because the licenses for digital and physical are negotiated separately, it means that Huddle will continue as planned, and should not be impacted in any way through the course of the recent deal they secured to become NFL licensed. Once that deal is over, its up to negotiations with the league.

Importance of Huddle’s NFL Deal

It should be abundantly clear that Topps Digital is exposing thousands of new people to trading cards with each of their apps, and Huddle is no different. With an NFL deal in place for 2016, the app has become one of the most important assets in the portfolio, regardless of performance in comparison to the other games.

Topps has been producing football cards for 60 years, as we have seen with the anniversary series released each week, and thanks to Huddle, that storied history will continue to be a force in a modern format. Millions of people continue to use smart phones and tablets as a way to connect with the world, play games, and stay up on current events. Huddle and the Topps Digital apps bring trading cards into that age.

Potentially, if they remain the sole licensed entity for Topps in football come 2016, the app is more important to the future of the company than ever before. New designs, new players, and new content would only be available in digital form, and for the readers of this site, that might come as a surprise. Considering that the physcial side of trading cards as a whole hasnt been performing well over the last 10 years, maybe its time to figure out how digital might be the future of this industry.

Future of the Business

There is no doubt that Topps Digital is a force that Panini will look to try to rip off, as they have already tried in an unsuccessful way a few times. Because Topps was first to market, users have come to understand the way digital cards should be. Panini will not be able to overcome that easily, if at all, putting them at a HUGE disadvantage should they ever try to create their own football app.

I could see Huddle being a big name on their target list, as they know Topps Digital’s existence undermines the massive and irresponsible investment they made on the physical side. Of course, the fact that Topps continues to make improvements and positive changes to their apps means that any engagement from other companies is likely going to be met with a barrage of challenges from an entrenched user base.

In the end, we are far away from the time that I would start to worry. Huddle expects to be around for the long haul, and I have no problem trusting their determination. With Daily Fantasy and other fantasy elements DOMINATING the sports landscapes, Huddle remains an outlet that should get more popular as the years go on. Im good with that.

If you are a Steelers fan, yesterday was a pretty big deal for you. Not only did Huddle release the first ever “Pack Journey,” but they also released 3 additional Ben Roethlisberger Variant Sigs and the first Triple Sig of the year. These cards should end up being EXTREMELY rare, but are they valuable enough to participate special release programs of this sort?

Background

Special programs, like the Pack Journey we saw yesterday, were around last year as Huddle hit the middle of the season. Like this year, we saw variant sigs as the prize, but nothing like we are seeing with the Triple Signature card. Although triple sigs were also around last year, they were readily available for anyone to pull from the packs that were in the store. They were tough pulls, but nothing like this year.

The prize pack variant sigs were insanely rare last year too, and as I expect this year’s cards to be, were very valuable. Because Huddle was so much about gameplay during the season, the sigs didnt have the clout they do now, but were still sought after above and beyond any other insert.

Valuing the Cards

Right now, the dual sigs and legends cards are at the top of the mountain for all the chase cards, save the 1/1s that are always going to be the top. The triple sig should end up being around the same value, if not only because its the Steelers and the first card of its kind. It should end up with a card count at or around 30, which will put it around the Newton dual sigs that were released three weeks ago. This is a very good thing for the people that pull a copy.

There will definitely be more triple sig cards. That should be expected. I would also expect that the format of the pack journey may change, as the cards are climbing in count a bit faster than I would guess anyone expected. I hate to say it, but if we are going by the standard of previous pack journeys, the current one is too easy. Previous pack journey cards rarely went above 15, thus keeping value for the users who dropped the coins to get access. I completed the Romo offseason pack journey, and ended up with a 14 count card.

As for the Variant Roethlisberger sigs, they may come down in value as the card counts rise. Pack journeys havent usually lasted more than a few hours, and the 48 hour window on this program is going to be tough for the people who bought in expecting a bit lower count of a card. The gold is pretty much the toughest of the three to pull, and its count still hasnt hit the danger zone like the others have. Im not saying that the cards wont end up lower count than normal variants, its just the fact that they are not tied to an award means that the rarity is a bigger part of determining value. This goes doubly so when considering cost to obtain through the packs.

I will say that I am curious as to why Roethlisberger was used again. This is a prime opportunity to inject some new blood into the chase, and adding variant sigs after the fact doesnt usually go over well. I do like that they changed the picture, as it prevents confusion, but I cant help but feel like this is a missed opportunity. Considering that both Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown sigs could easily carry a pack journey instead of Roethlisberger, I would have gone that direction.

Suggestions for the Future

If I were running the program, here are some suggestions for next time that might lead to some better outcomes:

• Release pack journey store screen in spurts, maybe an hour at a time, rather than running straight for 48 hours, create a more opportunistic situation
• Give us reason to open the packs other than coins. Instead of untradeable coin cards, I would offer a special boost leveled insert that increases with each pull. Start with a 1.5x boost and 20k for the first pack. This card should be branded with the program, not a base card. Then go to 2x and 100k with the second pack, and 2.2x and 250k with the last pack. I understand this adds more work, but the card could be reused throughout the season.
• Make people start over when they pull the last card. I know this isnt going to be popular, but it will prevent some of the higher counts and people stocking up on coin cards. You might not be able to walk away with 3 sigs for the 900k bundle again, but your cards will be lower count and more valuable.
• For the variant signature card, use a player that hasnt been a sig yet. Picture changes are nice, but new players would be nicer. This has to be strategic, because you dont want to cannabalize the checklist for the regular sig cards, but the great thing about the NFL is that there are plenty of stars that can carry a program like this. Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Peterson, Gronkowski, Beckham, Julio, Watt, Sherman and company may be slated for regular sigs, but there are others that could be used too.
• Triple sigs should remain the best AND most popular players on the team. Putting Stephen Gostkowski on the Brady dual sig was a killer. The Brown/Bell/Roethlisberger lineup on the Steelers card was perfect. All sigs should ADD to the value of a card, not detract.

As with every Huddle program like this, the players will carry the brunt of the call to action. If the cards and the players dont measure up, the rest of the program will fall apart. Luckily, the checklist for Pack Journey 1 was on par.

Game play is the one thing that makes Huddle so much different from its predecessor in Bunt. With Bunt, there is just as much of a focus on collecting as there is gameplay. Although I expected the acquisition of the full NFL license to jump start the collecting side of Huddle, gameplay is still a much bigger draw. That’s NOT saying collecting doesnt exist in the app, its just more 65/35 rather than 50/50 in Bunt. I would even argue that its 65/35 in Bunt this year collecting vs gameplay, as the contests didnt really seem to get people in the door.

One of the main complaints for 2015 Bunt was that the effort you had to maintain to do well in the contests did not translate over to the prizes that were available. Tiny coin bonuses or packs with base / cheap inserts didnt do much to get people exicited. As a result, the contest structure didnt really take off.

In a few posts and talking with the team, I mentioned a few adjustments that I felt would help tremendously. One of my soap box items were contest only cards, that were not available to people who didnt play along with the live games. Although I AM NOT saying that my suggestion led to what is going on in the Bunt playoffs or Huddle contests, they went the right direction in adding the Contest Winners set to some of the larger contests available in both games.

When you look at Huddle, playing along in the contests can net you a number of cards, many without cost. There is not a single reason why you shouldnt play along if you are already watching the games, especially on Monday and Thursday night.

Best of Huddle

Looking at the progression of this set, we have come a LONG way.

Because of a number of things, I would guess, Huddle is not able to produce Best of Huddle cards on demand. I would venture this is the same reason why there is no player of the week cards either. When you add a second body into the mix that has to approve cards, im sure there are certain things on production timelines that have to be sacrificed. Either way, I actually like pre-selecting the players much better, as we are more guaranteed that some rando who has a crazy game doesnt end up as a card.

They also changed Best of Huddle for the better in the way that the cards are delivered, as the people who score in the top tiers get all the cards from the lower tiers too. That is a very good thing. I remember last year during the playoffs that lower tier players got somewhat more strategic cards that werent afforded to the users who did much better.

When it comes to value, this is where things get kind of crazy. I have seen the gold BoH cards out of 25 go for an absolute ton. I have gotten multiple offers for my golds that I turned down because of who was on the card (Adrian Peterson), many of which would have made you quite impressed.

If you find the user who collects BoH, you can easily come away with a king’s ransom. Other times, you wont be able to give the cards away. With BoH, its always best to wait for the right offer, rather than just throwing the cards to the wind because you dont get a bite on your Fan Feed post.

Contest Winner Cards

To be completely honest, these might be some of my favorite new cards of the year. I love the design, I love the rarity, and I love that you have to EARN them. Rather than a rookie getting lucky in a pack, these have to be won, and I am enamored with that scenario.

Being that there are now two kinds of Contest Winner cards, there is a definite tiered value system at play. The gold /25 and /10 are definitely crazy valuable if you find someone who collects that team or player, but like BoH, not everyone is interested in cards that arent pack pulled.

I cant decide if its because people dont want the cards if they feel like they didnt win them according to the rules, or if people legitimately feel like the cards arent cool.  Maybe its the fact that they have no award for collecting the set? I really dont know. Its an interesting situation, because they are some of the rarest cards around.

This actually goes back to the 2013 Huddle “Limited” cards, which were given out to people like BoH. Sometimes, the players were popular, and the cards went for a ton. Some of them still sell for a lot however many years later. Other times, not so much. I wasnt a huge fan of the design, so I never chased them. These Contest Cards are a completely different story though.

I have traded low count cards that I have won for a lot, and I have also seen them go for very little. Its all relative to the person, as without an award for the set, it relies on the player and team more than anything. Rarity should come into play more, but some feel like it doesnt apply when not pulled from packs.

In the end, I think I mentioned a few times that your trading partner will dictate value on these more than the community. These cards will be more volatile than any other type of card, and that’s just the way it is. My advice is to find the right partner and find something that works for both of you. That way, both come out happy that they got what they felt the value is all about.

There is something about 1/1s that incites a feeding frenzy among the Huddle community. Being that there are literally thousands of people who are competing with each other to have the best collection, they speak to the people that thrive on that form of vanity within the app. Now that we have gotten a good picture of what Huddle is like for 2016, these are a bit of a game changer in more ways than one.

History

The 1/1s in 2016 are FAR from the first 1/1s available in Huddle, as last year there were HUNDREDS of similar cards, both pack pulled and won in gameplay mode. The top 1/1s of last year were the Parallax signature series cards, which were only available by pulling a special ticket that allowed you to choose your subject. That subject was then built into your own personal signature card, of which you had the only copy. These cards were impossible to pull, and thats not even talking about the cost of the pack.

There were also 1/1 gold cards released, very similar to this year, but in a much different pack format. Instead of releasing one at a time, they released batches of 10 over the course of a few days, until each team had their player. These cards are still some of the more valuable 1/1s, because as a pack pulled version, they are more valuable than 1/1s won from winning the throwdowns that took place on Monday and Thursday nights.

Why 1/1s Will Not Be Going Away

When the Aaron Rodgers hit the sheet, people freaked out. Some in a good way, thinking how cool the card is, and how much they want it for their collection. Others were not as happy, as they knew it was a promotion they would likely never be able to “win.” This led to a lot of people chiming in, but more importantly, it led to a TON of packs being ripped. Even though the next few cards have not sold out in 15 minutes, the packs are still being opened at record rates. People want the 1/1s, and they also realize opening a 5k pack and getting 1-3 gold cards isnt a terrible deal either.

What everyone needs to realize is that Topps will not give up on a program that generates the type of craziness that 1/1s do. They are a business first and foremost, and because they can basically “print” on demand, there is literally zero reason not to continue pumping out the 1/1s until people stop buying. The community is obviously speaking  with their wallet, and that is really all anyone needs to look at.

Why Its Fine That They Arent Going Away

First off, the pack format is an amazing value at this point in the season. Because Golds were so difficult to pull, having a guaranteed pull rate on the golds for the cost of a normal pack is just amazing. I ripped the crap out of the original packs more because I wanted all those cards more than a 1:10000 shot at a 1/1 Aaron Rodgers. Obviously, the Adrian Peterson 1/1 that hit later that night was a bit different, but since then, its been tough to rip any other pack because of how important the golds are.

Even with the gold pull rates aside, this is one of those things that you can easily ignore if you are not interested. Not only do the 1/1s rarely hit the fan feed, they rarely have any impact on the game other than the fact that they exist. Basically, if you dont like them, dont worry about it. You wont be missing out.

For the people like me that love the chase associated with these cards, this is going to be heaven for you over the next few weeks from what it looks like. So far, its been one big name after another, and it looks like they arent stopping any time soon.

Future Possibilities

As we saw in Bunt, the allure of the 1/1 can change a release at the drop of a hat. Although right now we have only seen gold cards, its definitely possible that Huddle will use precedent set by Bunt and SW to release special cards.

Back a few months ago, Bunt released an Andrew McCutchen relic with an MLB logo, and I could very much see Huddle do something similar with an NFL shield to add some pep to the Relic series.

As for the ever growing number of boosts, I could easily see them using that as a vehicle as well. There is just too much left on the table if they dont go that direction with any of the different types of cards that they offer. For the most part, I am fine with that, even if it means my once complete Vikings collection is now incomplete forever.

Impact

If there is one thing that will be negatively impacted by this, it has to be the Gold player cards which are now flooding the app at a reckless pace. Because you can pull at least one per 1/1 pack, and those cost as much as a regular pack, people can walk away with 10+ golds in a 50k bundle. Where these cards were once very valuable due to the low pull rates on the packs, they have already come down significantly in value. High demand and low supply creates a chase. High supply and high demand still create a chase, but eventually demand will drop as supply stays high.

Right now, people are still looking to stock their lineup, so the impact isnt as big. However, as more of the 1/1 packs hit the market, the value will continue to drop as more golds hit the open market.

At the same time gold value is diminishing, lower rarity base will drop too. Although completing sets may keep the cards at a reasonable level, eventually that will fade. We saw this situation with Huddle last year, as people started to accumulate huge hoards of base cards.

This would actually be a great time to introduce Smuggler’s Den, and maybe offer a shot at some bigger boosts if people shred some of the massive amounts of golds hitting the market. That’s a whole different discussion in itself though.

My Plea 

I do have a few specific asks of the Topps team in considering the addition of 1/1s to their method of operation.

• Keep them Special – nothing will turn the community even more against the business than churning out 1/1s like cookie cutters. They dont need to be an element of everything, and they should be special for what they represent. The Topps team may believe that adding a 1/1 designation to a card makes it special, but I could not disagree with that more. Nothing ruins the novelty of a card more than making one just because you can. If we are going to spend the money to chase a card that is 1:2000000 packs, it cannot be JUST another card with a low count.
• Get Creative – Find new ways to incorporate the 1/1s, and find new formats for the packs that keeps things fresh. Its not just about making people rip thousands of packs to get one. Maybe its bringing back the pack journey or other progressive types of situations that end with a shot at the 1/1.
• Reward Set Collectors and Team Collectors – It would be amazing to think that completing a set or being a fan of any given team gives you a shot at the pull of a lifetime. With so many people in Huddle basing collections around a certain team, or basing their collections around chasing certain sets, this would be a really cool opportunity. As long as its not an every day thing, it will add value to a chase that may be lacking.

There are so many reasons why 1/1s are a really cool chase, and there are even more reasons why someone would want to own one. I think if this is managed appropriately, there would be no situation I can imagine where they wouldnt be chased like sharks with blood in the water. If things do get out of hand, like we have seen past years, that could change very dramatically. I am confident that with a full license now, there really isnt a big reason to go down that road, unlike previous situations where that happened.