Digital Card Central

A unique thing has happened in Bunt this year, especially in regards to the economy for series cards as the chase award is available and after the chase award is expired. Because the market is activated each day with new cards, its very unusual the way they perform.

Understanding the Economy

Right now, there are hundreds of users who feel compelled to collect every set, mainly because its fun and challenging. They also have very nice collections to leverage in trade, as well as quite a few coins to buy packs as well. As a result of their demand, the set series cards can become quite valuable as long as the chase card award is still available. These users will drive up the price of the cards because they have the firepower to outbid just about anyone. Because many of the people who obtain the set cards in pack are not as “rich” in collection, to them, these trades are like hitting paydirt. I know this from experience.

Im not even close to chastising users from overpaying for set cards, I am just explaining what happens. If they want to spend what they spend, that’s their prerogative, as they can do as they please with their cards. Actually these individuals arent even most of the problem, its the users who believe these cards retain the value long term, which just isnt the case.

Its also not just the group of set collectors that drive up value, its the whole Bunt economy that is responsible for a lot of these strange phenomenon. Because the median age of user has dropped this year, and because many younger (and also newer) users dont really understand supply vs demand in game, things get very dicey.

Bunt, in 2014, is all about new and hot. That is why 300 level sigs from weeks passed cant be traded for 400 level sigs released this week. New is better, and funny enough, that is exactly how real cards work too. The things that get complicated are what happens when an economy is built up around a card’s value which eventually PLUMMETS as something new hits the market.

Making the Most of What You Have

Lets say you are lucky enough to pull a hot card, which has happened to me a few times this year. It is in your best interest to trade immediately. Its hypocritical of me to comment negatively on the new tendencies and then encourage people to ride the wave, but I digress. You can get more when something is hot, and unless it is an ULTRA RARE release, its likely you can trade back for it later when value drops.

Here is how I see the value of set cards – with the orange line representing value and the red line being the time the award expires.

Of course my assessment is simplistic, but regardless of cool factor or rarity, this represents the value of a set card. It will be worth most at release and most at time to of expiration. After that value will decrease exponentially as users move on.

As with any capitalism inspired economy, it behooves you to sell at the highest possible point and buy at the lowest. If you are not like me, and can stand to wait out the value, it will be in your best interest in the long run. Let the market run wild, and pick up the pieces when its over.

When it comes to any Signature series card, things change a bit, so please do not use this method with any of the sigs. At that point, extreme rarity can improve value over time, which will mean it may not be best to sell right away.

How Can This Be Fixed?

It really cant be fixed in any short term fashion, as its clear that the new set structure will only serve to promote this situation. In earnest, its best to just play your cards right (pun intended), and know how to operate within the system. Buy packs when the cards are new, and see if you get lucky. If you buy enough, you will likely get lucky at some point. There is also a point to people’s willingness to overpay, so I would ADVISE AGAINST counter offering when you eventually get that blockbuster deal. Either take it or leave it, because it has likely been offered to enough people that someone will accept. They will have no problem waiting that out.

Also, when the award expires, you have likely missed your chance. Do not go offering the cards to people and expect them to pay what they did when the award was active. You will either get 1-starred or ignored and that’s not good.

If you have any questions, shoot me a 1:1 same card trade and ill do my best to let you know what I think.

I have gotten a lot of questions lately regarding the value of inserts that have no set production number and ones that have defined numbers of how many copies will be in circulation. A lot of times these things can be the prime determining factor in an insert’s value, and im going to do my best to explain how I look at it.

When each set or insert is released, Topps puts out an article in the news feed describing that new card. It is always in your best interest to read the article, every single time. It will talk about number of days in packs, potential print run, etc. Outside of sigs, which have extreme value regardless of print run, each insert’s article can increase or decrease demand. Sometimes on purpose.

Defined Print Run

Let me start out by saying that it is EXTREMELY rare that an insert wont satisfy its print run. If Topps says there will be 1000 of a card, you can bet that they will manufacture ways for the card to be pulled until the print run is complete. This means, you should enter into any pack buying or trading scenario knowing that the stated print run is how many copies the card will eventually end up with. Even if a card is sitting with a count of 113, and Topps said there would be 500 – trade like its a 500 card. Trust me.

This can be an advantage because it is that much easier to forecast final value. If an insert only has 100 copies, its automatically going to be more valuable than one that has 1000 copies – minus any sig vs non-sig situation.

Similarly, a card that has a high print run (1000+) is not going to be that valuable, especially after any reward for collecting a set is expired. If you just want the card, its better to wait if you dont have a lot to give.

Unlimited Print Run

If you are trying to determine the potential final value of an unlimited print run card, here are the elements I would look at. These things all impact the number of them that will be pulled, so take that into consideration.

• Time in packs – huge consideration, especially if that time is long. If its short, you know more people will be left out in the cold. Cards that are in packs for a day will usually be EXTREMELY rare, a week not as much.
• Pack cost – the higher the cost of the pack, the more rare it will be. Most Bunt users are not coin rich and will not be able to afford many of the packs.
• Pack sales – unlimited print run cards will be decimated by a pack sale, which is evidenced by Kershaw POTW and the Black Pack sale that went on forever. Half price packs will make things more accessible to everyone, which will hurt value as more are pulled.
• Cool factor – if the card is pretty cool, people will buy coins to get it. If it isnt cool, not only will the value drop, but the amount of people opening packs for that card will drop too.
• Pack type – if an unlimited print run card is in all packs or just a specific pack, you know things will be different. The more available it is, the more it will be pulled, the more the value will drop.

These are just a handful of the things to consider, and I am not exaggerating. The amateur economists out there who can master this scouting are the ones that do the most with their coins and trading. You can tell that many users dont understand this, which can lead to a lot of issues. Familiarizing yourself will only serve to make this a better experience all around.

We have had some new base cards released over the last few days, and I want to break down some of the players you will want to get a hold of for your collection. This was more hitter heavy than previous releases, but there were a few gems to pick up.

Marcus Stroman

If you are looking for the one guy to pick up from this release, Stroman is the guy. He isnt on the level of an Adam Wainwright or a Felix Hernandez, but he is strikeout friendly and can be nice for some good pitching performances. Am I going to play him over some of the other pitchers that are likely going to be throwing at the same time? Probably not, too much risk. But nice to have as a backup.

Jake Odorizzi

The Rays are hot right now, and its always nice to have a few cards from a pitcher that is playing for a team that will give him lots of support. Again, we are now getting to the point where there are times with no pitchers throwing, so guys like Odorizzi are no longer at a premium, take that into account. There will always likely be someone better on the mound.

Jason Vargas

This is a guy that has his moments, no doubt, as Vargas has had some great games this year. The issue is that the Royals have been known to fold down the stretch, and their pitching hasnt exactly been stellar during that time. Vargas will get it done, but shouldnt be your first or even second choice.

Danny Duffy

My descirption for Jason Vargas can almost be copied and pasted here for the other Royals pitcher in the bunch. Duffy has had his nice games with a high strikeout total, but I am not rushing out to pick up 9 of his card.

Im sure we will start to get deeper into the pitcher class more and more as we get closer to the release of Topps update, and there are some guys that still are without base cards to watch for.

Since the last time I wrote about this subject, pack buying has almost changed 100%. Not only have the cards themselves changed, but the best approach for each collector has changed too. Personally, I hearkened this back to the way things changed around 2000 in real card collecting with more expansive options for each consumer to buy, and what that meant in the grand scheme.

It used to be that buying the high five pack for 5000 coins was a great way to stay on top of your collection, but Im not sure that is close to the best option you have these days. With all the specialty packs available, its almost counterproductive to buy the base pack, unless there is a specific reason for doing so.

If you are an insert collector, here is how I would rate the best packs to buy:

• How many different types inserts are available if I spend the coins for this pack?
• Does the pack cost justify the value of the insert?
• Is that insert so ridiculous that I should be buying this pack specifically for that insert – IE signature packs only have one possible insert you can pull, but its a doozy
• What are my chances at pulling super rare gold cards or silver cards if I dont get the insert they are offering?

Most of the time, the weekly inserts are very valuable during the course of the week, as everyone is rushing to complete their set. The cooler the insert looks, the more valuable those cards will be. Allen and Ginter was the most representative of what an elite insert can incite in a pack chase, and that’s no joke. Other inserts like Leather havent exactly been the same reaction.

Packs like the Twitter Follower Special (which you have to sign up for with a special form available on their Twitter home page – @toppsbunt) are really quite impressive considering that they offer elevated odds at the base cards, all weekly inserts minus the sets, and a bunch of other fun stuff. There are also black, grey and white packs that can spark an insert revolution, but when inserts are available to everyone with the click of a button, they usually lose quite a bit of value.

If am a points player, here is how I would rate the best packs to buy:

• How many cards am I getting in this pack?
• How high above 6% is the SR insert rate?
• How many people are opening this pack right now? (more = better)
• What series are in this pack? (series 1 is nice but very available for trading, but 2 and 3 are usually more pitcher heavy)
• How much below the 1000 coins per card rate is this pack?
• Can I also pull inserts to trade for more Golds?

Right now, my favorite pack to open is the Sunday Brunch pack, which is worth saving all your coins to open. I have seen it as low as 1500 and as high as 2500, but because the SR rate is more than double 6%, and a ton of people open it, you can get a gold per pack some times. Even better, its all later series cards, which means I dont have to pull commons from series one that I am swimming in. Packs like Instagram and Facebook also have enormous potential for Golds, but are higher priced. Happy hour packs which can be very cheap are also a great way to stock up on golds for a cheaper price.

All of the above situations really dont showcase a need to open the high five pack, but POTW and SNB cards can be worth the risk. Because the POTW cards score at 3x during the week they are released, it makes them quite the pull. SNB has some nicer names and have been shown to be a collection target for a lot of the users.

Other than that, unless you are going to spend a lot of money playing the game, its best to be strategic with the packs you are going to target for the week. If you are a gold VIP and a top points player you are likely clearing 85,000 coins per week (64500+9000+8500+4000), which means you have some discretionary funds if you want to waste some coins. Otherwise, you are likely going to be scrounging for coins and looking for some nice trades. Try not to be tempted by higher priced packs that dont return a lot of cards/golds.  You will need to ensure you make the most out of every pack. Hope this helps make that decision easier.

There has been much discussion over the best of Bunt cards for a long time, espcially in regards to value within the game. There are a lot of reasons why these cards are incredibly cool, but also reasons why their appeal might be limited.

One of the main issues with the Best of Bunt cards is that they are not pack pulled, which means they will automatically drop in value. Although they are some of the most limited cards in the game, they are not considered to be as valuable as any of the inserts that are pack pulled at the same rarity. Similarly, there are not many users who will want to trade their trophies from an epic week, but some of the cards will hit the market.

I like the design of the Best of Bunt cards, but I can see where there are people who dont like the pictures that are used on the cards. Player selection is also a huge deal with these cards, as it is relatively out of the user’s hands which they end up with. One week, Kershaw could be a top scorer, where the next week it could be Jayson Werth. It causes issues with consistent value, but that is the nature of the cards.

Because my collection is dictated by a specific team, or by point values, I usually trade my BoB cards each week. I have had as high as blue, but as low as purple, with most being gold. The golds I can usually trade for a few inserts, where the purples will usually get a SR pitcher or two. The week I was able to break the top 50, the player was Josh Donaldson, thus limiting trade options. I was able to get some nice cards none-the-less.

Bottom line, do not go asking for the moon for these cards, because its likely there is not a huge audience. Also, dont give up a ton for the Purple and Black versions, mainly because there are so many. Black BoBs have 500+ copies and are basically another gold card in terms of value.

NOTE: There are a lot of BoB collectors who will pay nicely for the cards, but dont take advantage of that need. From my experience, they have a network of guys that they count on to fill their set, and that will likely trump you expecting them to overpay.

By now I am sure you realize that there are three to four pitchers who’s cards trade like inserts, and with the new scoring system in place, its likely that they will continue to be valuable above and beyond every other base card. Here is my experience with each of them.

NOTE: These exchange rates are high because I expect you will be the person making the offer. In most likely situations, the person making the offer will overpay.

Felix Hernandez – SR GOLD (3100+ copies)

I have offered multiple inserts for this card and still have been turned down. Pretty crazy to think that people covet this card more than they would covet the status symbols that govern the economy of the game. Although there are quite a few of them out there, it is easily the most valuable base card in the game.

Exchange rate: 3 good inserts or 5-6 elite gold pitchers

Clayton Kershaw – SR Gold (5000+ copies)

Again, like Hernandez, Kershaw is equally as valuable, commanding insert like value in the economy. His infinitesimally small ERA and higher K/BB rate makes him as valuable as King Felix, even though he doesnt have quite as many Ks. Expect to give up a few inserts to get one, if you find someone willing to part with theirs.

Exchange Rate: 2+ good inserts or 4-5 elite gold pitchers

Adam Wainwright – SR Gold (2500+ copies)

The last of the true gold standard pitchers is Adam Wainwright, who was recently picked to start the all star game for the NL. Similar to Kersh and Felix, he has a huge value due to being the newest gold standard pitcher to be released, and his great performance so far. As long as he stays healthy, its likely he will end up in the top part of the game.

Exchange Rate: 2+ good inserts or 4+ elite gold pitchers

Felix Hernandez – SCR Silver (8,000+ copies)

Although not as valuable as his gold counterpart, it still commands a high value and is easier to obtain. You might be able to catch someone who isnt aware of the value and will trade for some golds.

Exchange rate: 1 insert or 2-3 active pitcher golds

Clayton Kershaw – SCR Silver (14,000+ copies)

This is the card I would chase, as it provides the most value and is much more readily available than any other card on this list. The trick is to find someone who doesnt quite play for points and blow them away with 8-9 gold hitters you dont play.

Exchange rate: 2 active gold pitchers or 6-8 gold hitters

Yu Darvish – SR Gold (9,000+ copies)

For being around since day one, Darvish has very few copies – a lot less than I expected. He is a great pitcher to chase down because he strikes out so many hitters along the way. I have seen him go as high as a couple inserts, but as low as 1:1 with other golds. Overpay with hitters and he is yours.

Exchange rate: 2 active good pitchers, or MAYBE 1 insert